Boeing's iconic 747 hits a major milestone this weekend when German carrier Lufthansa flies away with the 1,500th 747 ever produced. The delivery continues a remarkable run for the airplane, which has been in production since 1968. It was the world's first jumbo jet, and the new ultra-long routes it could fly helped reshape global air travel.
"It's the most recognizable aircraft produced today," says Eric Lindblad, vice president and general manager of Boeing's 747 program. "Fifteen-hundred 747s is a huge number, especially for an airplane this size."
But the milestone comes as some industry observers suggest that the aircraft is near the end of its run as demand for four-engine jumbo jets wanes. Indeed, the number of 747s coming off Boeing's production line north of Seattle is just 1.5 per month — down from about six per month in 1990. And airlines that have older 747s in their fleets are phasing out the planes at an increasingly brisk clip.
Airlines show an increasing preference for two-engine wide-body jets — like the Airbus A330 and Boeing's own 777 — that seat fewer people, but burn less fuel and can fly comparable distances. Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Virginia-based Teal Group, says the 747 "has two more turbines to carry around," making its higher capacity an "expensive block of seats to carry around."
Only three passenger airlines besides Lufthansa — Korean Air, Air China and Russian carrier Transaero — have orders in for new 747s. And while cargo has historically been a strength for the 747, orders for Boeing's freighter versions also have slowed amid a global slump in cargo demand.
But Lindblad pushes back against any pessimism regarding the 747's long-term outlook.
Redesign details
He notes the company is fresh off a major redesign of the 747 that resulted in the current iteration of the jet — a thoroughly modern 747 that's also the biggest passenger jet ever made by Boeing.
Lindblad says the jet's technology upgrades — many borrowed from Boeing's new-age 787 Dreamliner — have made the current model a state-of-the art aircraft with improved reliability and lower operating costs for airlines that buy it.
"The 747 is advanced technology when it comes to the wing, the engine, the flight deck, and it has the new interior in it as well," Lindblad says.
Lindblad suggests airline customers are willing to pay more to fly on the 747, a "flagship" aircraft perfect for "making a premium experience for high-yield customers."
Lindblad points to the 747's signature hump, and the opportunity it provides for airlines to create an upper-deck first- or business-class cabin that feels exclusive because of its location relative to the rest of the plane.
"People relish the opportunity to be there," he says. "It's a space all by itself. ... And the same thing goes for forward of the entry door," an area most airlines use for first- or business-class cabins.
Analysts' doubts
But can Boeing turn all of that into more orders for the jet?
"There is still a fair amount of interest" from airlines, Lindblad says. "Enough that we're going to sit here today and say we expect we're going to be building the 747-8 for quite a bit longer."
Aboulafia doesn't see it that way. He says he thinks "it's highly unlikely" that the 747 stays in production beyond the next decade.
"If we get back to the cargo numbers we've seen for several decades, it is possible," he adds.
However, Aboulafia says he's pulling for the 747, even admitting he's "part of the club" that "loves the upper deck of the 747."
"I would love to be proven wrong about the 747," he says. "It's a beautiful plane, and it's an icon. It's the only word for it. Iconic."
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